In this post (and again in this post), I looked at the declining level of monthly US troop deaths in Iraq, and noted that "a cynic might say that US troop deaths are down because Iraqis are attacking each other."
Well, it turns out that cynic would be wrong. Via Instapundit, MyElectionAnalysis looks at additional data (pdf) from the Brookings Institution and says:
FOLLOW-UP:
Demonstrating the uncanny political instincts and keen sense of timing that served him so well in his failed Presidential campaign, John F. Kerry recently claimed that U.S. troops are "in the middle of an escalating civil war." If current trends continue, brace yourself for the flip-flop.
ANOTHER FOLLOW-UP:
Page four of the Brookings report (pdf) has a graph of US troop deaths that's very similar to the one I posted here.
Well, it turns out that cynic would be wrong. Via Instapundit, MyElectionAnalysis looks at additional data (pdf) from the Brookings Institution and says:
But it must be that the insurgency is turning their assault on Iraqi military and police, who are increasingly taking up the slack, right?Of course, we would like those numbers to be much, much lower. But it's clearly wrong to say that they're spiraling out of control.
215, 176, 193, 189, 158, 193 (and the three months before that were 304, 282, 233)
Okay, okay, so insurgents aren’t engaging us; they’re turning increasingly to car bombs then, right?
70, 70, 70, 68, 30, 30
Civilians then. They’re just garroting poor civilians.
527, 826, 532, 732, 950, 446 (upper bound, two months before that were 2489 and 1129).
FOLLOW-UP:
Demonstrating the uncanny political instincts and keen sense of timing that served him so well in his failed Presidential campaign, John F. Kerry recently claimed that U.S. troops are "in the middle of an escalating civil war." If current trends continue, brace yourself for the flip-flop.
ANOTHER FOLLOW-UP:
Page four of the Brookings report (pdf) has a graph of US troop deaths that's very similar to the one I posted here.
It's also important to remember that there have been several periods of waning violence by Palestinians in Israel and the occupied territories, and the violence always starts back up again. This is despite the Israelis' determination and perseverance and resolve, and unaffected by the all-powerful liberal bias of the NYT. The Israelis have been "pressing on" for decade after decade, and Palestinian militants still don't show any signs of giving up. Why do you think Iraqi insurgents will be any less devoted to their cause?
They are a number of Republicans whom, if they were slated for President, would send me into serious consideration of the Democrat candidate. It would be a relief if they would get serious and offer a better alternative than they have during the last couple of elections. And no, Hillary Clinton would not restore my faith in the Party's clear-headedness. We share nothing more than similar reproductive systems, something the Dems don't seem to understand either.
Though he would have made a better president than Dubya by several orders of magnitude, I'll agree that he was a terrible candidate, and I thought so from early in the primaries.
I'm not sure what you mean by this. What gives you the idea that democrats think all women are the same? Have people been mistaking you for Hillary?
I hope she doesn't get the nomination, but I'd vote for her in a heartbeat over Jeb or McCain.
Fortunately, neither of those ideas steers either party.
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