Big Ben's co-blogger Stinger has laid a smackdown on the MSM for a remarkably silly article on the impact of Florida's repeal of helmet laws. He found it summarized on Fox News, but here's the full Associated Press article. It says:
FOLLOW-UP:
I look at the original Florida Today report here.
Motorcycle fatalities involving riders without helmets have soared in the nearly six years since Gov. Jeb Bush repealed the state's mandatory helmet law, a newspaper reported Sunday.Stinger responds:
A Florida Today analysis of federal motorcycle crash statistics found "unhelmeted" deaths in Florida rose from 22 deaths in 1998 and 1999, the years before the helmet law repeal, to 250 deaths in 2004, the most recent data available. By comparison, Florida logged 270 deaths of riders without helmets during the 1990s, when riding without a helmet was illegal, according to National Highway Traffic Safety Administration reports.
Total motorcycle deaths in the state have increased 67 percent from 259 in 2000 to 432 in 2004, statistics show. Records also show a corresponding rise in the popularity of motorcycles in the Sunshine State. Motorcycle registrations have increased 87 percent in Florida since Bush signed the helmet law repeal on July 1, 2000.
No more helmet laws = more people riding without helmets = more people dying "unhelmeted." Duh! If laws suddenly changed so as to effectively encourage people not to wear shoes, then of course, of all the deaths that occur in a given period, you are obviously going to see a higher percentage of those deaths by barefoot people! Oh and by the way, 2 + 2 does actually equal 4.Sigh. I suppose it would be asking too much to expect professional journalists to interpret data correctly.
The only figure with any meaning when discussing helmets and traffic safety is the total number of deaths, which the article does state increased 67%. However, in the very next line the article itself states that motorcycle registrations increased 87% during nearly the same period! i.e., the rise in motorcyclist deaths is trailing the rise in the total number of motorcycles on the road by a substantial amount, 20 percentage points, to be exact. This is where the article really shoots itself in the foot, because what do these findings tell you?: that the proportion of motorcyclist traffic fatalities has actually gone down!
FOLLOW-UP:
I look at the original Florida Today report here.
What the journalist doesn't reveal is who commissioned the so-called study published by Florida Today. It's a well-established fact throughout both TV and Print newsrooms that it is rare to find reporters/producers actually finding and reporting a story on their own. Frequently, such stories are pitched to producers by P.R. firms and advocacy groups, and it is more than likely that this "study" came about the same way. It's likely a group either (a) committed to re-enacting a mandatory helmet law, or (b) a group that is using the findings as a means of embarassing the Governor.
Big Ben, I would be intrigued to see if, were you to send a Letter to the Editor to the offending newspaper, said paper would actually publish your lesson in logic. It would be a good 'heads-up' to readers that logic would be well employed when reading advocacy pieces masquerading as journalism.
The 67% and 87% anomaly turns on why total deaths (helmeted and unhelmeted) have increased only 67% while registrations have increased 87%. Perhaps riders are registering multiple bikes, though they can only ride one at a time. Rider miles may only be up 67% despite increased registrations. But this anomaly only underscores the helmetless death issue. Helmeted deaths in 2004 (432-250=182)are lower than 2000 (259 - 22(approximately) = 237)despite the 87% increase in registrations. Yes, the rate of helmeted fatalities has gone down. But the helmetless rate is statistically soaring.
In other words, the exact same unhelmeted riders might have died had the law not been repealed, but they would have been wearing helmets when they bought it.
The statistics the article cites do not tell us that the unhelmeted riders would have been saved by wearing helmets; if you have a bad enough crash, a helmet won't make a bit of difference.
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